IEM Shanghai 2017: Group C Preview and Predictions


In the third edition of this series, we take a closer look at group C from the Ro16 at IEM Shanghai, addressing stats, predictions and potential upsets! Be sure to also take a look at groups A and B if you haven’t yet.

Now, let’s look at group C which features an old favourite of the Intel® Extreme Masters.

Group C

  • soO
  • TIME
  • herO
  • Solar

Group C has three well experienced Korean players and one Chinese underdog looking to throw the group expectations out the window. Can TIME find his groove and do something unheard of, or will the predictions play out as shown?

  • Match 1: soO vs. TIME
  • Match 2: herO vs. Solar

The opening match is soO vs TIME. The Korean is coming off the back of another second place finish in Code S – so we’re guessing he’ll want to tackle GuMiho later on in this tournament – but for now getting through his first match probably won’t trip him up. TIME shouldn’t be a realistic threat to soO, though this opportunity on his largest tournament stage may fuel the Terran player’s fight.

TIME: Expected Finish 4th

  • To advance: 8.52%
  • 1st place: 3.00%
  • 2nd place: 5.52%
  • 3rd place: 25.05%
  • 4th place: 66.43%

The second match, herO vs Solar, should be quite the spectacle: two former StarCraft champions with 4 years of an incredibly close, back-and-forth match history. Both players have had success in 2017 already and this will be one of the best opening matches of the tournament. If we take a look at their match history, we can see how closely matched these two are.

  • herO vs Solar: map score: 21-17 (55.26%)

When taking a step back and looking at this group, we are certain to be losing a player of tournament winning caliber in the very early stage, but which one will it be?

Group game-by-game prediction:

  • soO vs TIME 2-0
  • herO vs Solar 1-2
  • Solar vs soO 1-2
  • TIME vs herO 0-2
  • herO vs Solar 2-1

1st place soO

2nd place Solar

Statistical predictions

soO: Expected Finish 1st

  • To advance: 73.04%
  • 1st place: 43.48%
  • 2nd place: 29.56%
  • 3rd place: 17.29%
  • 4th place: 9.67%

Solar: Expected Finish 2nd

  • To advance: 67.20%
  • 1st place: 31.66%
  • 2nd place: 35.55%
  • 3rd place 24.34%
  • 4th place: 8.46%

herO: Expected Finish 3rd

  • To advance: 51.24%
  • 1st place: 21.87%
  • 2nd place: 29.37%
  • 3rd place: 33.32%
  • 4th place: 15.44%

TIME: Expected Finish 4th

  • To advance: 8.52%
  • 1st place: 3.00%
  • 2nd place: 5.52%
  • 3rd place: 25.05%
  • 4th place: 66.43%

Predictions by