IEM Shanghai 2017: Group D Preview and Predictions


In this fourth and final edition of our preview series, we go into group D and oh boy what a great group to complete the ro16 at IEM Shanghai. We will once again address stats, predictions and an overview of what to expect! Be sure to also take a look at groups A, B and C if you haven’t yet.

Now, let us dissect the final group of the tournament which features the best Terran players in the world.

Group D

  • INnoVation
  • Trust
  • Maru
  • ByuN

In group D, we’ll see some of the most intimidating Terran players of all time battle it out for advancement to the quarterfinals, with each one of them capable of winning the event.

  • Match 1: INnoVation vs. Trust
  • Match 2: Maru vs. ByuN

INnoVation, The Machine, is just one of three Terran that wait for us in group D. Three Terran who are known for their relentlessness. Each of these players commands a different, indelible skill. (See this reddit thread for a highly apropos description of Maru, INno, ByuN and group A player, TY, as the four horseman of the apocalypse – their official/unofficial title.) And they’re joined by Trust, who truly has his work cut out for him.

The lone Protoss vs. INnoVation should be simple enough to predict. Trust has beaten INnoVation in just one match, a best of one. And INnoVation is known for his merciless play. He’s a two-time IEM champion, most recently, after a 4-0 win over Stats, at Gyeonggi Season XI. Trust though, is in excellent form against Terran. If he were to fight his way out of this group, we’d have something to talk about – as very few expect him to do so.

Maru has a more realistic shot at achieving that goal in this stacked-with-Terran group. The Jin Air Green Wings player beat TY after the latter attempted and failed a proxy banshee rush in the final season of Proleague. We know he has it in him to beat these Terran, especially ByuN. Despite ByuN’s predicted advantage, Maru has him 10 to 5 in games and 4 to 1 in matches. But ByuN might be seeking revenge for their most recent meeting, which ended in a defeat in Code S.

Maru also beat both Trust and Bunny to qualify for this event. He could be a target in Shanghai, simply for the fact of his past wins. But he’s also inexplicably skilled, and could excel in this group and in the playoffs, even though he’s thrust into the group of death.

ByuN, for his part, is not likely to go down without a fight. If we’re being realistic, he’s not likely to go down at all. Everyone knows what kind of shape ByuN is in: ranked #1 in Korea, #1 in the world. His last meeting with INnoVation, last week, ended in a 3-2 win for ByuN. The one before that, he took 2-0.

Ultimately, there’s an easy prediction here, for INnoVation and ByuN to both come out of the group and into the quarterfinals. They both have impeccable TvT play, dominate the ratings, win championships and inspire fear in their opponents. They don’t have nemeses because each is a nemesis by nature. Then again, Maru could absolutely take INnoVation in a TvT. Even the numbers make it tough to tell.

See how it plays out for all four players in the matches on July 28.

Group game-by-game prediction:

  • INnoVation vs Trust 2-0
  • Maru vs ByuN 1-2
  • INnoVation vs ByuN 1-2
  • Maru vs Trust 2-0
  • Maru vs INnoVation 2-1

1st place ByuN

2nd place Maru

Statistical predictions

ByuN: Expected Finish 1st

  • To advance: 68.88%
  • 1st place: 35.56%
  • 2nd place: 33.32%
  • 3rd place 21.90%
  • 4th place: 9.22%

Maru: Expected Finish 2nd

  • To advance: 63.72%
  • 1st place: 34.75%
  • 2nd place: 28.97%
  • 3rd place: 24.31%
  • 4th place: 11.98%

INnoVation: Expected Finish 3rd

  • To advance: 58.62%
  • 1st place: 26.44%
  • 2nd place: 32.18%
  • 3rd place: 29.10%
  • 4th place: 12.28%

Trust: Expected Finish 4th

  • To advance: 8.79%
  • 1st place: 3.25%
  • 2nd place: 5.53%
  • 3rd place: 24.69%
  • 4th place: 66.52%

Predictions by